Back in January 2013, we gave our judgements as to how to Social Media would evolve over the coming years. *Spoiler alert* – some predictions were certainly misjudged. Rather than removing it, we thought it would be super interesting to see how our predictions have changed over the years. So, we’ve delved back into the wonderful world of Social Media predictions to once again predict how the Social Sphere will look in the next 5 years! So without further ado, here are our predictions then vs now:
Our Predictions
Social media has been and will be part of our lives for many more years to come. With media evolving every day, who knows what 5 years is going to bring for the networking industry and what exciting sites we will be connecting through.
With some dying out, some at their peak and others just beginning these are some of our 5-year predictions:
Twitter Predictions
January 2013
Personally, I have witnessed a transition from Facebook to Twitter, and how this has now turned into the world #hashtagging #almost #everything. The Twitter hashtag has virtually become human nature to our everyday social networking it allows you to discuss what others are tweeting about worldwide. To me, Twitter is at its peak but with such a successful network who knows what 5 years will do for them and you never know what may come up and overtake.
January 2021
Now standing proud with a mammoth 340 million users, Twitter has undeniably taken off in recent years. Interestingly, Twitter users are 38% more likely to post opinions about brands and products than users of other Social Media platforms. So, if you’re interested in hearing what consumers think of your service – Twitter is the platform for you.
This platform’s heavy involvement with news is obvious. With millions logging in daily to get their daily dose of political or news updates, its no surprise that 71% of Twitter users say they use the network to get their news.
Twitter is easy to navigate, and its lower character limit than other platforms means that content is often easily digestible.
10 years ago, in 2011, Twitter saw a minuscule amount of Tweets sent per day: 100 million. Whilst, at first blush, this may seem glaringly impressive, when compared with today’s estimate of 500 million, 100 million is nothing in contrast. If this growth rate continues, Twitter’s dominance in the Social Media sphere doesn’t look to be receding any time soon.
Facebook Predictions
January 2013
So, I was around 12 when my Facebook page was created, the hype was unreal during this time. But now I’m an old grandma third-year student and I sort of feel that I’m growing out of my Facebook persona as the ‘youngers’ begin to take over. Is the younger generation going to keep Facebook alive as much as we did? I think Facebook will survive off its fresh-faced users but may not be as pulsing as it once was.
January 2021
Ahh, the original Social Media goliath. Holding its title as the 2nd most popular website in the world, coming in 2nd only to Google, Facebook’s spot on this list of notable Social Media platforms is firmly held in place. Facebook also boasts an incredibly loyal user-base, too. When compared with its rivals, Instagram, Snapchat, YouTube and Twitter, they pale in comparison to the number of users that visit the platform daily. In the US, a whopping 74% of all US Facebook users visit the platform each day. For comparison, a mere 42% of Twitters users visit the site each day. If you’re considering exploring Facebook as a marketing tool, you’re not alone; Over 140 million businesses already use Facebook for growth and marketing purposes.
Notably, in our earlier prediction, we pondered whether the younger generation would keep Facebook alive. Well, quite the opposite has developed. Research has unveiled the speed at which those born before 1945 are growing on this platform. Back in 2012, only a small proportion (21%) of those born between 1946 and 1964 had a Facebook account. This percentage leapt to an impressive 84% in 2019.
If this interesting thriving user-base continues on its current trajectory, we will still be using Facebook for many years to come. However, the demographic using the platform will likely change with the years.
Tumblr Predictions
January 2013
With every Tom, Dick and Harry jumping on the blog writing bandwagon, it’s great news for Tumblr. With young demographics and blog lovers, Tumblr is becoming one of the places to be. Blogs are becoming a popular way to social network and my feelings are that they are here to stay. Get on the bandwagon; it may just be your new way of networking!
January 2021
Tumblr is frequently overlooked these days when talking about all-things Social Media. It is often cast aside, being overshadowed by its far more dominant cousins: Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, LinkedIn, Pinterest, Snapchat, YouTube, TikTok, and Reddit. Back in 2013, Yahoo! Inc. purchased Tumblr for 1.1 billion US dollars – an incredible sum of money by any means, but even more so when compared with the 3 million US dollars Automattic paid for it in 2019.
Tumblr’s combined desktop and mobile visits have been ‘tumbling’ since the company decided to ban adult content on its platform in December 2018; Visitor numbers and community engagement dropped following the ban. In May 2019, Tumblr had 364.5 million unique visitors (combined desktop and mobile visits). In September 2020, that figure had dropped to just 292.5 million.
Unfortunately for Tumblr, we don’t predict we will be seeing this platform around much in the next 5 years.
January 2013
With the new business wave of job hunting/headhunted through using LinkedIn, more employers may use this approach to recruit for the role. As everything in our lives is becoming digital mad why not continue this and in 5 years probably be able to see a 3D image of yourself and profile on social networks purely for job seekers. Watch this space!
January 2021
Well, it may not have reached our prediction of being able to see a 3D image of yourself on your profile, but LinkedIn has vastly upped its game since 2013. Boasting an impressive name as the most trusted social network in the U.S., a commendable 73% of social media users somewhat agree that LinkedIn protects their privacy and data; this figure is just 53% of Facebook.
We don’t see LinkedIn disappearing any time soon. The pandemic cast a light on our reliance on LinkedIn to find jobs, with remote jobs on Linkedin increasing 2.5x from March to October 2020. With 40% of the platform’s users changing their job, company or industry every 4 years, and 40 million people using it to search for jobs each week, it doesn’t seem like this reliance on LinkedIn is going anywhere in the near future.
January 2013
Are you ready for a visual networking takeover? We are becoming even too lazy to read social network feeds. With the use of Instagram and photo streams, social networks in 5 years’ time may become more visually interactive compared to the more discussion-based networks we use today.
January 2021
Instagram’s indisputable impact on well, anything, goes without saying; It’s definitely come a long way in the last 5 years. Instagram’s growth can be summarised in one impressive statement: Nearly 1 in 3 internet users are Instagram users. Back when we made our first predictions in January 2013, the platform saw only 90 million monthly active users. ‘Only’ may seem strange when put next to 90 million, but for context, the platform was seeing 1000 million monthly active users by June 2018.
More recently, the impact of Instagram marketing is notable, with influencer marketing being a great way to get your product out there. So, when it comes to Instagram, we definitely think we will be using this platform for at least the next 5 years.
YouTube, TikTok, Snapchat, Oh My…
We didn’t originally make predictions for these 3 Social Media giants, but we couldn’t discuss Social Media without tipping our hat to the success they’ve had over recent years.
YouTube
A mind-blowing 500 hours of content are uploaded to YouTube every minute, that’s like watching the entire Lord of the Rings trilogy 54 times in the space of 1 minute: Certainly impressive, though not necessarily easily digestible. Back in January of 2012, YouTube had 800 million monthly active users. As of May 2019, this figure reached 2 billion.
Interestingly, staying close to Giraffe’s home quarters, Brighton-based YouTuber PewDiePie holds the second most subscribed channel (as of July 2020), with 108 million subscribers.
YouTube’s content is often short and easily digestible, and with society loving anything that can be easily consumed whilst they scroll on their smartphones, we think YouTube will still be here for a while yet.
TikTok
During the pandemic, many of us turned to TikTok to dance, laugh, and scroll our days away. As of November 2020, TikTok had 800 million monthly users; Small in comparison with some other platforms, but with an impressive 90% of TikTok users visiting the app more than once per day, the platform doesn’t need to worry just yet. Whilst this platform may seem like its set for success for many years to come, we did see similar success with Vine, and we all know how that turned out…
Snapchat
With 229 million daily active Snapchat users worldwide, Snapchat has seen a 20.5% YOY growth from the previous year (190 million). Back in 2018, a flippant Tweet from a certain high profile celebrity *cough* Kylie Jenner *cough* saw Snapchat’s parent company stock value fall by a shocking (and likely tear-provoking, to the owners) $1.3 billion. That didn’t seem to hinder the app’s success too much, though, forcing even Instagram to up their game with added lens features and time-sensitive content. In 2020, the average Snapchat daily active user opens the app’s camera more than 20 times per day – that’s a lot of times using the dog-filter in one 24 hour period.
With other platforms offering similar features to Snapchat (i.e. the ability to send 4-second videos of your cat to your friends 5 x a day or morph your face into that of a donkey), we’re not sure how long Snapchat has got left. Whilst we predict it will still be here in years to come, we think its userbase may decrease.
All January 2013 predictions made by – By Alice Gilder (@AliceGiraffeSM), Social Media Content Assistant
If you’re interested in exploring the marketing potential on Social Media platforms, you’ve come to the right place! Get in touch with Giraffe today! We’re the social media specialists and we’re here to help you delve into the world of Social Media marketing.
